Sunday, May 25, 2008

Politics notes

A few notes on Obama:

  1. Did you know that his name comes from the Hebrew word בָּרוּךְ "baruch": blessed? The quasi-journalist David Brody thinks he's "elitist" for mentioning what his name means.
  2. Is Obama a Muslim? No.
  3. Here's a strong case for Virginia's new Democratic Senator, Jim Webb, as VP:
    • His military background shoring up Obama's perceived weaknesses: "He helps considerably with Obama’s credibility on military affairs. While Obama does have what seem like pretty decent instincts on foreign relations, in all honesty his understanding of the military as an institution is thin. He needs someone on the ticket who knows how the military works, how things get done, and how its internal politics operates. Webb was Secretary of the Navy, serves on both the Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees, and has had a lifetime of experience thinking through the uses of military power. A Democrat like Obama is likely to end up sideways with the military, at least on occasion (although less than in past decades, given our recent experience), and he'll need someone by his side who knows how the game is played with the Pentagon."
    • Bringing support from military voters: "Webb could very credibly campaign in areas with large military installations (especially Navy and Marine installations). Virginia, Florida, and California (the latter may be in play if McCain can maintain his now-fictive reputation as a moderate) have enough active-duty military personnel that improving the Democrats’ performance with military voters in these states could be the difference between victory and defeat. Military support for Republicans is very strong, especially with a veteran on the Republican ticket, but Democrats only need to improve their performance marginally to make a big difference here."
    • Support from Appalachian voters: "Obama has shown some considerable weakness among white voters in and around Appalachia (defined broadly), although it’s not clear yet how much this will extend to the general election. Webb’s claim to fame, along with his work on military issues, is his ostentatious embrace of his Scots-Irish heritage—what my friends in sociology might call “paleo-whiteness.” If Obama put Webb on his ticket, he could campaign actively among active-duty military personnel (see b), and spend most of his time on a bus driving up and down from Western Pennsylvania and Eastern Ohio, south through Virginia and West Virginia, and in a stab at Republican home territory, in Western North Carolina and Eastern Tennessee and Eastern Kentucky. I think the odds of the Democrats winning in those latter three states are slim, but if Webb could make them competitive by driving up the Democrats' performance in parts of those states where they generally do not run well, it could force the Republicans to expend time and resources where they’d rather not."
    • Webb's sponsorship of the GI Bill: "Webb is the leading supporter of the recently passed New GI Bill, which--whatever its policy merits—is a great political issue for Democrats, and one where McCain has staked out a position that he shows no interest in budging from (and which he shares with Bush). This is a great issue because it allows the Democrats to attack McCain on what should be his greatest strength, and to tie him to the president. On its own, it won’t dislodge a whole lot of veterans (or currently serving personnel), but it may make them more open to listening. Having Webb on the ticket raises the profile of the issue and ensures that it will be a major part of the Fall campaign."
    • Webb's trans-partisanship: "Webb openly defines himself as a “Reagan Democrat,” and he has a great claim to the title (having actually served as a Reagan appointee). If Obama is going to genuinely open up the electoral map, he needs to be able to speak directly to Republicans who have grown disgusted with their own party. To get them to switch to the Democrats, he needs a spokesman who has the credibility that can only come from having done it himself. I can imagine Webb giving a great speech to the Democratic convention, aimed directly at voters who regularly pull the lever for Republicans, saying, “Here’s why I became a Democrat, why I chose to serve on Obama’s ticket, and why I think you should join me in switching your party allegiance.” Sort of like a sane version of Zell Miller. No one else currently in the running for Obama’s VP can do that."
    • His cultural orthodoxy shoring up Obama's perceived global awareness, a.k.a. "elitism": "Obama needs cover. There is no question that either McCain or his (official or informally coordinated) surrogates will attack Obama for being culturally alien and itching to sacrifice our national interests in order to play patty-cake with dictators. He needs someone who oozes cultural orthodoxy and hawkishness to protect this—very vulnerable—flank. I can’t think of anyone who can defend Obama as effectively as Webb can."
    • Obama needs a tough military vet to attack McCain on military issues: "Obama needs someone to attack McCain, on precisely the issues that McCain wants to run on. Whether we like it or not, one key role of the vice-presidential candidate is to spend time ripping the bark off the guy at the top of the opposing ticket. Webb is strong—and arguably more sophisticated—on the dimensions that McCain will be trying to run on: national security and “outsiderness.” There are some candidates who would be good at attacking one prong of McCain’s strategy, but not the other. Webb is good on both."
    • Webb's sensitivity to white working-class voters and their cultural politics: "In office, Obama needs someone to keep him from doing anything stupid. I once thought Obama’s political radar to be exceptionally well-tuned. Like a lot of other people, I’m now convinced that it doesn’t pick up on some potential threats as well as it does others. Webb, on the other hand, is very finely attuned to things that will be seen as offensive to white working-class voters—he has the view from the inside, not an outsider view driven by polling those one does not instinctively understand. Just as important, Webb is a blunt, no-nonsense guy, whose whole history suggests that he will be willing to tell Obama things that others won’t. I think there is a danger that he will share his dissents with others as well, and that this might cause problems for a President Obama. But, on balance, I think this is less of a risk than that he won’t hear things that make him uncomfortable."
    • Webb's ability to take on "the war on drugs" and other tough issues: "In office, Webb will be a good spokesman for some of Obama’s less popular policy initiatives. At the top of the list here, I put America’s drug war and our habit of excessive incarceration. I would consider an Obama presidency a failure if he did not make significant progress on this issue—it is a matter of exceptional national importance. But he needs someone pushing it who can speak directly to the fears that Americans will have, that cutting back on incarceration will mean greater dangers for themselves and their families. I don’t think Obama is the perfect messenger for this point, but Webb is (and has shown a very strong interest in the issue)."
A few weaknesses of Webb are claimed, but I think he's a great pick. Some people think that two senators on a ticket is weaker than one with a governor, as it lacks executive experience. However, given that McCain is "just" a senator also, this won't play well. I'd love to see Webb on the ticket.