I decided to go quiet on Twitter until after the election. But I had to document my thoughts in writing one last time before 11/3/2020.
Back in 2016 I was confident Hillary would win, but I did post two tweets running up to the election that belied my insecurities: here (11/4) and here (11/8). Now that we're a week from Election Day, I'd like to reflect for the record that I think this time around may be a blowout for Biden & what it means.
Two days after the 2016 election, I posted a bit of analysis on the numbers and takeaways. Mainly my point was that Trump's win was a razor-thin margin across MI + PA + WI & that demographics would make 2020 an even harder win ("hinge" election notwithstanding). I stand by my conclusions, although the certified numbers did shift somewhat (in Hillary's favor, actually). As many people have pointed out, third party voters & low turnout won't be the same factor this time around.
So what about now? TL;DR version: a big Biden win. And even better? I think we'll have a good idea on the night of the election because of Florida, Florida, Florida.