Friday, November 11, 2016

Processing Prez Don the Con

I'm still just trying to absorb that we elected an orange reality TV star as our president. It just hasn't sunk in yet.

I could say what a million other people have said, but all I can take away from the reality of our election is that there is good news ahead. Before I get to that, look at the tale of the numbers with no spin or partisanship: Republicans barely, barely eeked out this win.






The Electoral College math shows that she would have won the election had she held onto these very close three states.



To put this in perspective, he won Florida by 120,000 / 10 M ~ 1.2%. So he actually won the election by fewer votes than he won Florida by.

So let's first point out that there wasn't exactly a "mandate" for him. Losing the popular vote by 0.3% and winning the election based on 107,330 votes is not exactly a huge roar of approval from America. That's not to say it isn't a legitimate win. By the rules of the game, he won fair and square.

Looking at the turnout numbers is depressing:



Despite all of the talk about the importance of this election, turnout was down for both GOP and Dems. Hillary lost 8.5% of the votes from Barack's 2012 victory, and 13.4% of votes from his 2008 victory. If she had held on to the same number of voters as 2012, it would've been a strong win again, by almost identical margins as last time. Don't miss the fact that Republicans didn't win because they got more voters out. They won because she got so many fewer...

Some thoughts on the future: the demographics are not good for GOP going forward. This isn't news. They knew this back in 2013, after Romney lost, which they said in their "Growth and Opportunity Project" analysis.



It is possible that a new Democratic Party will rise from the ashes in 2018. Right now I don't know and don't care. But the map in 2020 will be even more foreboding, and without serious (additional) restrictions on people's right to vote, it is a heavy lift for any Republican to win. Since Trump will be 74, it's difficult to say whether he'll even want to run again. Obviously it all depends on the way the next 4 years work out for him...