Friday, November 9, 2012

I was wrong, Nate Silver was right

Nate Silver was right. I was wrong. Of course it isn't like I did a rigorous statistical analysis of polls using an amazing and complex model to predict the election results, so I don't exactly have egg on my face. Actual results:






Obama won 332-206. My predicted map was for the President to win only by virtue of Ohio. In reality he would've won without Ohio, Virginia and Florida, squeaking by with 272-266.

While the popular vote margin wasn't huge, it was almost exactly the same as George Bush's in 2004, about 3 million. To be precise: 61.2 M (51.26%) to 58.2 M (48.74%), or a 2.52% margin.

Now remember that in 2004 Bush's re-election was a "Mandate" with a capital M. So does this mean that John Boehner has seen the err of his ways? Hmmm...
“A majority of Americans thought it was just fine to raise taxes on higher income people, but that’s more of an emotional response, more ’I’m in pain, I want someone else to pay,’” he conceded in an interview. But, he added, “how does that solve America’s problems? That’s counterproductive to go down that road.”
The interesting point here is that when the Republicans clobbered the Democrats in 2010, they ostensibly had a valid point to make: Obamacare was quite unpopular, maxing out support at 50%. If the party in power's principles are not popular with the majority, then they should not be the governing party. Now re-read his concession: the majority of Americans want to raise taxes on the rich back to the Clinton-era levels (or far beyond, as I do). And yet this is "counterproductive"...