I will stake out at the fore that I am against the death penalty.
It seems that those who argue that it deters crime rely almost entirely upon econometric analyses in which questionable "correcting variables" are introduced and regressions are done that can always be likened to "fitting the data to the presupposed conclusion", or,
Statistician Francis Anscombe (1973) demonstrated how bizarre the Flatland assumption can be. He plotted four graphs that have become known as Anscombe’s Quartet. Each of the graphs shows the relationship between two variables. The graphs are very different, but for a resident of Flatland they are all the same. If we approximate them with a straight line (following a “linear regression equation”) the lines are all the same (figure 2). Only the first of Anscombe’s four graphs is a reasonable candidate for a linear regression analysis, because a straight line is a reasonable approximation for the underlying pattern.This is from a professor of sociology at Rutgers, one who, I'm sure, is familiar with statistical analyses. But he dismisses the sorts of analyses done which point to a deterrent effect because he believes that there are overwhelming evidences that there simply is no such thing. He believes that the regression analyses which purport to show an effect of this sort are "rigged" by the variables introduced by the analyst.The data on capital punishment and homicide, when plotted in figure 3, look a lot like Anscombe’s fourth quartet. Most of the states had no executions at all. One state, Texas, accounts for forty of the eighty-five executions in the year shown (the patterns for other years are quite similar). An exceptional case or “outlier” of this dimension completely dominates a multiple regression analysis. Any regression study will be primarily a comparison of Texas with everywhere else. Multiple regression is simply inappropriate with this data, no matter how hard the analyst tries to force the data into a linear pattern.
Unfortunately, econometricians continue to use multiple regression on capital punishment data and to generate results that are cited in Congressional hearings. In recent examples, Mocan and Gittings (2001) concluded that each execution decreases the number of homicides by five or six while Dezhbaksh, Rubin, and Shepherd (2002) argued that each execution deters eighteen murders. Cloninger and Marchesini (2001) published a study finding that the Texas moratorium from March 1996 to April 1997 increased homicide rates, even though no increase can be seen in the graph (figure 1). The moratorium simply increased homicide in comparison to what their econometric model said it would have otherwise been. Of all the econometric myths, the wildest is this: We know what would have been.
Since this is outside my area of expertise, I will simply cite some references below. The only papers I could find purporting support for a deterrent effect were econometric in nature. All of the sociological studies I found were pro-abolitionist.
One rather interesting factoid I found while searching for papers was a study done in the Netherlands in 2003 which found that about 35% of the citizens there disagreed with the country's abolitionist stance. They found that the 35% was largely comprised of the young and the uneducated, and blame attitudes of dissatisfaction with the judicial system on support of the death penalty. (DOI):
It is shown that support can be modeled quite well, partly in terms of general attitudes to criminal justice, partly in terms of political and sociodemographic parameters. Within the criminal justice attitudes complex, more support is found among those endorsing harsh treatment of offenders, those willing to grant far-reaching powers to justice authorities, those believing that the government is not delivering on the topic of crime fighting, and those who are concerned about the level of crime. Within the political context, more support is enlisted among people who abstain from voting and those who vote at either extreme of the political spectrum as opposed to central parties' supporters. In sociodemographic segments it is the younger and poorly educated who are the strongest supporters of capital punishment. It is suggested that endorsing capital punishment can be better understood as an expressive act, displaying dissatisfaction with judicial and political elites in the country.It sounds like the more willing you are to give up liberties in favor of security, the more likely you are to favor the death penalty. A telling, and unsurprising, indicator of underlying attitudes. If you're willing to give up your own liberties, it is unsurprising you're willing to throw another's' life under the bus as well. I've had my say...read the below papers for a good idea of where current research stands.
PRO-Abolition:
- ...THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the American Psychological Association: Calls upon each jurisdiction in the United States that imposes capital punishment not to carry out the death penalty until the jurisdiction implements policies and procedures that can be shown through psychological and other social science research to ameliorate the deficiencies identified above.
- "Since 1973, over 120 people have been released from death row with evidence of their innocence. (Staff Report, House Judiciary Subcommittee on Civil & Constitutional Rights, Oct. 1993, with updates from DPIC). In 2000, 8 inmates were freed from death row and exonerated; in 2001 – 2002, another 9 were freed; and in 2003, 12 were exonerated. In 2004, there were 6 exonerations." (Death Penalty Info)
- "Consistent with previous years, the 2004 FBI Uniform Crime Report showed that the South had the highest murder rate. The South accounts for over 80% of executions. The Northeast, which has less than 1% of all executions, again had the lowest murder rate." (Death Penalty Info)
- "According to a survey of the former and present presidents of the country's top academic criminological societies, 84% of these experts rejected the notion that the death penalty acts as a deterrent to murder. (Radelet & Akers, 1996)" (Death Penalty Info)
Michael L. Radelet, Ronald L. Akers
The Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology (1973-), Vol. 87, No. 1 (Autumn, 1996), pp. 1-16
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1143970 FULL-TEXT (.pdf)
2) Capital Punishment and Homicide: Sociological Realities and Econometric Illusions
Ted Goertzel, Ph.D. Sociology Department -- Rutgers U
http://www.csicop.org/si/2004-07/capital-punishment.html FULL-TEXT: (.pdf)
3) The Changing Nature of Death Penalty Debates
Michael L. Radelet; Marian J. Borg
Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 26. (2000), pp. 43-61.
http://arjournals.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.soc.26.1.43 FULL-TEXT: (.pdf)
excerpt -- "...Overall, the vast majority of deterrence studies have failed to support the hypothesis..."
PRO-Death Penalty:
4) Does Capital Punishment Have a Deterrent Effect? New Evidence from Postmoratorium Panel Data
Hashem Dezhbakhsh, Paul H. Rubin and Joanna M. Shepherd
American Law and Economics Review V5 N2 2003 (344-376)
http://aler.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/5/2/344 FULL-TEXT: (.pdf)
5) The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Evidence from a "Judicial Experiment"
Hashem Dezhbakhsh and Joanna M. Shepherd
Economic Inquiry 2006 44(3):512-535; doi:10.1093/ei/cbj032
http://ei.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/44/3/512 FULL-TEXT: (.pdf)
6) Does Capital Punishment Deter Homicide?
[A Response to (2) above]
http://libertycorner.blogspot.com/2004/10/does-capital-punishment-deter-homicide.html
excerpt -- "...Now, I must say that I don't care whether or not capital punishment deters homicide. Capital punishment is the capstone of a system of justice that used to work quite well in this country because it was certain and harsh. There must be a hierarchy of certain penalties for crime, and that hierarchy must culminate in the ultimate penalty if criminals and potential criminals are to believe that crime will be punished. When punishment is made less severe and less certain -- as it was for a long time after World War II -- crime flourishes and law-abiding citizens become less secure in their lives and property."
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