Tuesday, June 12, 2007

New Barna Poll on Christian Trends

A while ago, I analyzed some leading indicators about the growth of Christianity in today's world. I was responding to a claim that today's Evangelical kids are leaving the fold at a faster-than-ever rate as they grow up. My conclusions at the time were:

First, the numbers for the rise and fall of Christianity's numbers are all over the map, but two cited trends are ubiquitous: i) the rise of fundamentalist sects, and ii) the demise of "liberal" and Catholic sects in the modern world. While the latter seems logical enough, the former is a bit suspect to me. According to Mission Frontiers, Christianity is growing on the global scale at approximately 2.6% per year, while the population growth (globally) is around 1.6%. That means that at best, Christianity is enjoying a worldwide 1% increase. What we find with all these numbers, though, is a huge upsurge in the population of fundie/charismatic believers in 3rd world countries -- the Catholics' previous stronghold is being assaulted by Evangelical missionaries. How much of the net 1% increase is only in 3rd world countries?
Now, a new Barna poll seems to confirm this suspicion. The title of the article says it all, "Most Twentysomethings Put Christianity on the Shelf Following Spiritually Active Teen Years." The caveat in buying this is what I said a long time ago: you have to carefully examine how Barna defines a Christian. Oftentimes, their criteria are so strict that many people who I would call "serious Christians" are cut from the poll. For example, they may be asked, "Do you believe that all Scripture is inerrant?" And when they respond, "No," they're not considered Christians.
The intensity of religious commitment is lower among young adults, but not as low as might be assumed. Among those in their twenties and thirties, 6% have beliefs that qualify them as evangelical. This is statistically on par with the level among today’s teenagers (5%), but about half the rate of those over age 40 (12%). One-third of young adults (36%) qualify as born again Christians, which is slightly lower than the 44% of those over 40. (In the Barna survey, evangelicals and born again Christians are defined based upon religious beliefs and commitments, not based on the terms people use to describe themselves.)
This is how Barna's "4% of teens have a Biblical worldview" poll was conducted.
Barna's definition of a biblical worldview included a belief that absolutes exist and a belief that the Bible defines them. Additionally, the definition stipulated a belief that: Christ lived a sinless life; God is the "all-powerful and all-knowing Creator of the universe and He stills rules it today"; salvation is by grace and not by works; Satan is a real being; Christians have a responsibility to witness; and the Bible is "accurate in all of its teachings."

The research found that those who attended college were more likely to have a biblical worldview than those who did not (6 percent versus 2 percent). Married adults also were more likely to have such a worldview (5 percent for married people versus 2 percent for singles). Also, 10 percent of Republicans but only 2 percent of independents and 1 percent of Democrats had a biblical worldview.
I would say that the 6% figure quoted is thus likely far too low.

In the new poll, they conclude that 81% of 29 years olds were "churched" as teens, but only 20% are still "spiritually active" and 61% disengaged in their twenties. There are other international polls that confirm this is a worldwide trend:

Australian Youth Follow The Secular Trend
Aug. 11, 2006

Less than half Australia’s young people say they believe in a god, and many believe there is little truth in religion, a new study has found. The three-year national study, a joint project between Monash University, the Australian Catholic University and the Christian Research Association, found many young people live an entirely secular life.
Spanish Youngsters Have Had It With Religion, Too
Aug. 11, 2006

A poll of 1,450 young people in Spain shows that most believe that religion is of little importance and has no place in schools. The survey of people aged 15 to 29 shows that attitudes have changed radically since the era of the dictator Franco. Then, homosexuality was banned. Now gay marriage is legal, with 80 percent of those who were asked agreeing with the change in the law.

A third of those polled declared themselves non-believers, with the majority of the remainder stating that religion had little relevance in their lives.
(more)
Despite these trends, we must be careful to reject the hasty generalization that "religion is dying" -- because it's not, (neither is atheism) and because many people have fallen into this trap before, especially claiming that "science is destroying religion."

I also want to reaffirm something I've said before -- I don't seek the demise of religion. I am not even sure that all religion is bad or harmful to humanity. If we call ourselves freethinkers, then we ought to have an evidentialist approach to such questions, and SFAIK, no such evidence exists. What I would love to see is the demise of anti-intellectual elements of all religions.
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