Saturday, January 12, 2008

Gloom and doom

Want some free advice from a professor of economics?
  • US recession and global economic slowdown in 2008
  • Central banks are behind the curve and Fed easing will not prevent a US recession
  • Severe financial losses (over $1 trillion) and systemic risk forthe financial system
  • Recoupling of the rest of the world with a global economic slowdown
  • Cash is king: avoid a variety of risky assets
  • Further sharp and persistent re-pricing of risk
  • The credit boom/bubble party is over!
Nouriel Roubini was among the first to see the oncoming recession, and both he and Krugman, another economist whose prescience is well-documented, are bearish and in general agreement that house prices have a long way left to fall. For our part, my spouse and I will be waiting to buy...

I wonder, if the worst-case-scenario plays out, how stable our jobs will be. We work in education, and generally speaking, this area of work is recession-proof, so we ought to be okay...